To really be thought-about a candidate for a bounce-back season, a participant must have a profile to bounce again from.
Whereas expectations are one factor, I wished to quantify precisely what we’re on the lookout for right here. Taking the fantasy manufacturing put up by all NHLers over the previous three years, I took the typical fantasy factors per recreation (FPPG) and per 60 minutes (FPP60) from the primary two years and regarded on the distinction in comparison with final 12 months.
Easy? And it’s. However efficient.
The gamers that popped essentially the most are included under, although I’ve skipped previous most goaltenders as they dominated this record and are in a unique class with regards to bouncing again. Goaltenders are very a lot a product of their atmosphere. There was one tandem I wished to incorporate, nevertheless, so I made an exception. Gamers are divided up into impression and periphery under.
Jakob Chychrun, D Arizona Coyotes (2.07 FPPG 2019-21; 1.72 FPPG 2021-22): We begin this record with the participant that has each the largest potential impression and the largest potential to nonetheless fall flat. The Coyotes are in a race to the underside and nonetheless have Chychrun on a discount contract by means of this season and the following two after. They completely should not have to commerce him. But when they do and if Chychrun will get again right into a place to do some injury, look out. Earlier than the wheels actually beginning coming off for the Coyotes final season, Chychrun was the second greatest fantasy defenseman of the 2020-21 season, ending seventh amongst all skaters for complete fantasy factors. He did all of it: targets, assists, modest power-play manufacturing, heavy shot quantity and even first rate hits and blocked pictures. Accidents did n’t assist final season together with his totals, however it’s notable that his charges additionally dropped. A commerce would absolutely kick-start the bounceback, however there is a world the place he manages to return to kind on the cellar-dwelling Coyotes membership.
Verdict: Bounceback predicated on a commerce.
Travis Konecny, F, Philadelphia Flyers (1.78 FPPG 2019-21; 1.52 FPPG 2021-22): Chalk this one as much as Sean Couturier lacking the higher a part of the season. However with Couturier healed up and a barely rosier outlook on faucet for the Flyers, Konecny ought to return to kind in spades. In the meanwhile, he stays the Flyers’ greatest scoring winger and can occupy one of many spots on the highest line and prime energy play with Couturier. The duo have a 58.6 p.c Corsi for at five-on-five through the previous three seasons, which is kind of strong at displaying their dominance collectively (Elias Lindholm does not have that prime a Corsi for share over the past three seasons with Matthew Tkachuk or Johnny Gaudreau, for instance).
Verdict: Nice bounceback candidate.
Mika Zibanejad, F, New York Rangers (2.76 FPPG 2019-21; 2.20 FPPG 2021-22): I imply, if he does not bounce again to his gaudy heights you are not going to complain about one other season of two.20 FPPG from Zibanejad. However there may be one other stage lurking right here that we noticed in 2019-20 when Zibanejad posted a McDavid-esque 3.20 FPPG over 57 video games. A leap ahead from Alexis Lafreniere may assist push Zibanejad again towards these lofty charges.
Verdict: Not that he must, however bouncing again a bit of.
David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins (2.61 FPPG 2019-21; 2.42 FPPG 2021-22): After a gradual begin together with his longtime linemates of Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, Pastrnak discovered extra success final season with Taylor Corridor and Erik Haula. Nevertheless it wasn’t sufficient to search out his increased gears from earlier seasons. Pastrnak had his explosive campaigns alongside Bergeron and Marchand, however that does not look like an choice on the desk anymore. Settling for two.40 FPPG will doubtless need to do, with the window on Pastrnak pushing for 3.00 FPPG seeking to be closed.
Verdict: No bounceback. That is the brand new regular.
Mark Stone, F, Vegas Golden Knights (2.18 FPPG 2019-21; 1.72 FPPG 2021-22): Accidents can take a lot of the blame for Stone’s pedestrian 2020-21 marketing campaign. And the outlook is way brighter regardless of the departure of Max Pacioretty. With a wholesome Jack Eichel able to heart the highest line, this could possibly be Stone’s most efficient season to this point. A constant producer of greater than 2.00 FPPG, having Eichel at his disposal ought to simply return Stone to the 30-goal threshold and push him to his first 80-point season.
Verdict: Eichel-induced bounceback.
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Dougie Hamilton, D, New Jersey Devils (2.26 FPPG 2019-21; 1.89 FPPG 2021-22): Was final 12 months a season of adjustment? Not only for Hamilton, however for the Devils as a complete? That could be a honest mindset because the workforce appears balanced sufficient to be an out of doors contender for a postseason berth with the event of its younger stars and the addition of some veteran sprinkles. At the moment going twenty seventh amongst defensemen in common draft place, Hamilton is just one 12 months faraway from ending sixth amongst defensemen for fantasy factors.
Verdict: Even a small bounceback makes him an ideal worth choose. An enormous bounceback may also help win leagues.
Tyler Seguin, F, Dallas Stars (1.80 FPPG 2019-21; 1.57 FPPG 2021-22): I’ll admit to being closely invested within the narrative of Seguin getting back from a season-long damage absence and surgical procedure to search out his kind as one of many elite purpose scorers of the NHL once more. I not envision that future, however I can see one the place he will get again to strong, roster-worthy fantasy manufacturing. If Seguin simply wanted a mulligan marketing campaign to get his legs again, we could possibly be in for a shock. Seguin handed in seasons of two.37 FPPG and a pair of.33 FPPG in 2017-18 and 2018-19 earlier than the knee and hip points started. I will not be as daring to forecast that type of manufacturing once more, however I would not be shocked if he topped 1.80 FPPG. Depend me in for a bounceback season, simply not fairly as excessive as I anticipated final 12 months.
Verdict: Can have his kind again and be worthy of your roster.
Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (1.74 FPPG 2019-21; 1.54 FPPG 2021-22): It is smart to do not forget that Barzal remains to be solely 25 years outdated and is but to achieve his final potential. He is additionally not been constantly surrounded by conventional, scoring wingers. That does not look like altering this season, so banking on a bounceback from Barzal is akin to doing the identical factor over and anticipating a unique consequence.
Verdict: Nope. Not till they get this man a winger.
Ryan Strome, F, Anaheim Geese (1.74 FPPG 2019-21; 1.52 FPPG 2021-22): It is unclear precisely what sort of line and function is awaiting Strome with the Geese. Did they signal him to be the No. 1 heart and protect Trevor Zegras for one more season? Or is there to be the second-line pivot in help? Does Zegras play the wing to allow them to be collectively? The place can we slot in Adam Henrique, Troy Terry and Mason McTavish?
Might I ask anymore questions concerning the Geese prime six?
Strome has loads of expertise and could be a power-play contributor. He may be the perfect ahead on the Geese roster within the right here and now, so the workforce ought to discover a strategy to function him. However the workforce can be constructing to be extra aggressive within the 2024-25 marketing campaign than the present one, so it isn’t a assure. However in case you see Strome because the workforce’s No. 1 heart on opening night time and featured prominently on the ability play, you possibly can guess he’ll be fantasy related out of the gate.
Verdict: In all probability, however it’s a battle to ascertain the Geese lineup.
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Alec Martinez, D, Vegas Golden Knights (2.25 FPPG 2019-21; 1.95 FPPG 2021-22): Martinez by no means obtained his engine operating earlier than a skate to the face and 50-plus stitches lower his season considerably quick. He would return to a Golden Knights workforce that limped towards the end and missed the postseason. Keep in mind how Chychrun was the second greatest defenseman in 2020-21? That is as a result of Martinez was the perfect. His fantasy manufacturing of him was off-the-charts good because of astronomical blocked pictures. The query right here: Does a 35-year-old defenseman who paid the value for his bodily play with a skate blade to the face nonetheless need to lie down in entrance of 200 pucks in a season? His shot blocking on the tail finish of final season suggests he does. With 21 defensemen rating forward of him in common draft place (ADP) in the beginning of September, he is wanting like a worth choose.
Verdict: Ought to have one other strong 12 months in him.
Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (Murray: 3.52 FPP60 2018-19; 1.07 FPP60 2021-22 — Samsonov: 3.18 FPP60 2019-20; 1.86 FPP60 2021-22): This goalie tandem will get highlighted as a result of they have been added by the Maple Leads particularly for the aim of bouncing again to their former selves/potential. A clear slate and a rock strong workforce in entrance of them must be sufficient to ensure one, if not each of those goaltenders can discover their kind. Their ADP is twentieth and twenty fifth amongst goaltenders, respectively, so securing the providers of them to your bench can be an choice.
Verdict: Each of them bounce again and Toronto has some choices to make on the finish of the season.
Ondrej Palat, F, New Jersey Devils (1.87 FPPG 2019-21; 1.53 FPPG 2021-22): Primarily assured a plum spot at even power, the large query right here is whether or not Palat will get a style of power-play life with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. If he does, financial institution on the bounceback.
Verdict: Bounceback predicated on power-play time.
Phil Kessel, F, Vegas Golden Knights (1.37 FPPG 2019-21; 1.17 FPPG 2021-22): After being stranded just about alone within the desert for 2 years, there’s a very huge alternative for Kessel to start out producing once more with the Golden Knights.
Verdict: After all he bounces again. Thirty targets and 40 helpers flanking Eichel and Stone.
Jonathan Toews, F, Chicago Blackhawks (1.75 FPPG 2019-21; 1.11 FPPG 2021-22): Refreshed however not essentially reinvigorated by the teardown round him, Toews wanted final 12 months to get reacclimatized to the NHL after taking a 12 months off. Whether or not he is flipped to contend for the deconstructing Blackhawks or not, he ought to push to fantasy relevance as soon as once more.
Verdict: For Toews’ sake, let’s hope he bounces again and might discover a touchdown place on the deadline.
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