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Collection Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres

With 22 video games to go, the Mariners solely have to win three extra video games to ensure a successful file and are tied with Toronto within the first Wild Card slot. As if that is not sufficient, the Vedder Cup is on the road this weekend because the San Diego Padres come to city! Having gained each video games in San Diego in July, Seattle might be uncommon for a season sweep, driving the excessive of an exhilarating weekend enjoying the Braves. Momentum is on the Mariners’ aspect in each instructions: the group took two of three from the reigning champs earlier than this sequence, and as soon as the Padres depart they’ll face solely groups with information under .500…not less than by way of sport 162. With Tampa Bay and Toronto going head-to-head this week, any video games the M’s win towards the Padres acquire them floor towards one of many groups they’re jostling with within the Wild Card race, and any video games the M’s lose will cede floor to the opposite .

At a Look

Fathers Mariners
Fathers Mariners
Sport 1 Tuesday, September 13 | 6:40 p.m.
RHP Yu Darvish RHP Logan Gilbert
48% 52%
Sport 2 Wednesday, September 14 | 1:10 p.m.
RHP Mike Clevinger RHP Luis Castillo
37% 63%

*Sport odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Crew Overview

Overview Fathers Mariners Edge
Overview Fathers Mariners Edge
Batting (wRC+) 100 (seventh in NL) 106 (fifth in AL) Mariners
Fielding (OAA) 16 (2nd) 9 (fifth) Fathers
Beginning Pitching (FIP-) 99 (seventh) 104 (eighth) Fathers
Bullpen (FIP-) 91 (4th) 97 (eighth) Fathers

The Mariners match up fairly effectively towards the Padres, as seen by their two-game sweep in July, by which the M’s outscored the Friars fourteen to 4 (after which they went on to comb the Blue Jays at house in 4 video games #TMoTakeback) . Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert are each favored over the opposing starters on this sequence, and the Mariners have a slight batting edge towards the Padres. That mentioned, complacency is rarely warranted when dealing with a generational star, and the Padres headlined the commerce deadline by selecting up one Juan Soto. In that commerce, the Padres acquired Soto and first baseman Josh Bell from the Nationals, and in return despatched over a primary baseman of their very own plus a lot of the key prospects of their farm system. That is along with selecting up nearer Josh Hader from the Brewers and utilityman Brandon Drury from the Reds final month.

These strikes haven’t all panned out because the Padres hoped for therefore far, however they definitely sign a push for fulfillment now; on condition that, the place does the group discover itself because the season winds to a detailed? San Diego sits in a robust second place within the NL West behind the league-topping Dodgers. They dropped two of three to mentioned Dodgers final weekend, bringing them to a 4-5 file in September so far. Just like the Mariners, the Padres are hid in a fierce three-way Wild Card race, however of their case solely two of the three groups will play a Sport 163: the Braves have a ten.5 sport lead within the NL Wild Card race, and the Phillies, Padres, and Brewers are inside three of one another, competing for the ultimate two slots. If the season ended as we speak, the Padres would eke in with the sixth playoff seed within the NL and play a 3 sport set in St. Louis.

Dad and mom Lineup

Participant place bats PA BABIP wRC+ BSR
Participant place bats PA BABIP wRC+ BSR
Jurickson Profar LF sure 577 0.265 111 -0.4
John Soto RF L 576 0.241 143 -2.5
Manny Machado 3B R 558 0.339 153 3.7
Josh Bell HD sure 587 0.306 128 -5.3
Jake Cronenworth 2B L 601 0.279 112 5.8
Ha Seong Kim H.H R 499 0.293 101 0.7
Will Myers 1 B R 236 0.343 85 0.8
Trent Grisham CF L 486 0.229 90 6.0
austin nola C R 349 0.281 84 -0.5

There are a few gamers one would possibly earlier have anticipated to see within the Padre’s lineup who’re absent this week. Star shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr. will miss your complete 2022 season, having been suspended for banned substance use shortly earlier than he was set to return to the sphere after having wrist surgical procedure. Third baseman Brandon Drury is on the concussion injured checklist after taking a pitch to his batting helmet final week.

As for the gamers we’ll see dealing with the Mariners pitching this week, slugger Manny Machado leads the group offensively with a 153 wRC+ and 28 house runs. Juan Soto has been struggling fairly a bit since coming to San Diego; his wRC + him this 12 months in Washington was 150, and as a Padre it is presently 119. Soto is clearly annoyed by this, however when he figures it out, he and Machado might be a drive to cope with within the coronary heart of the lineup . Former prime MLB prospect Jurickson Profar is making an affect with a stroll charge of 12% and an fWAR among the many prime 20 MLB outfielders. Second baseman Jake Cronenworth, too, is having 12 months, trailing solely Machado in place participant fWAR on the group.

Seemingly Pitchers

Up to date Stuff+ Explainer

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports activities

RHP Yu Darvish

168 2/3 24.9% 5.0% 10.4% 37.9% 3.31 3.49
Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Fee Stuff+ whiff+ beep+
four-seam 23.9% 95.1 2413 130 95 83
Sinker 9.6% 94.8 2279 116 105 134
Cutter 35.2% 86.6 2759 116 106 106
splitter 7.8% 89.3 1309 38 129 101
Curveball 4.9% 73.2 2652 91 79 127
slider 18.7% 82.5 2736 106 79 71

It is onerous to consider, however Yu Darvish is in the midst of his tenth season within the main leagues after coming over from Japan as a 25-year-old. He is continued to make the most of a deep repertoire to maintain batters off stability, although his eleven gaudy strikeout charge has fallen to a career-low 24.9% this season. The most important purpose for that decline is the ineffectiveness of his four-seam fastball from him. He is misplaced about two inches of experience on the pitch and its whiff charge has fallen to a six-year low at simply 20.1%. He is nonetheless in a position to generate loads of weak contact with it so it hasn’t been completely unproductive. And with a plethora of secondary pitches to name on, his general outcomes from him have been as strong as ever.

RHP Mike Clevinger

93 2/3 20.4% 7.5% 11.8% 34.9% 4.13 4.66
Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Fee Stuff+ whiff+ beep+
four-seam 37.9% 93.7 2293 127 99 71
Sinker 12.3% 93.1 2224 72 91 83
Cutter 15.4% 87.0 2462 89 116 84
change up 10.3% 86.5 1583 71 111 141
Curveball 2.6% 76.5 2212
slider 21.5% 79.9 2435 84 89 97

From a earlier sequence preview:

Mike Clevinger was traded to the Padres in the course of the shortened 2020 season however solely made 4 begins in San Diego earlier than succumbing to Tommy John surgical procedure. He missed all the 2021 season and a spring knee damage saved him sidelined till Might. He is made six begins this 12 months and he is nonetheless shaking off some rust. When he is proper, he has a deep arsenal that may produce a ton of swings and misses. Proper now, his cutter is the one pitch producing whiffs at an above common charge, however his four-seamer, slider, and changeup have all produced glorious outcomes prior to now. That cutter was a brand new addition to his repertoire of him again in 2020, and it helped give him one other weapon at a velocity band in between his onerous fastball and sweeping slider.

The Mariners scored 4 runs in six innings in Clevinger’s final outing towards them in July. I’ve allowed six hits, two walks, and struck out 5.

The Massive Photos:

The AL West

Crew WL W% Video games Behind Current Type
Crew WL W% Video games Behind Current Type
stars 91-50 0.645 WWLWW
Mariners 79-61 0.564 11.5 WLLWW
Angels 61-80 0.433 30.0 LLWLL
rangers 61-80 0.433 30.0 LLWWL
Athletics 51-90 0.362 40.0 LLLLW

The Wild Card Race

Crew WL W% Video games Behind Current Type
Crew WL W% Video games Behind Current Type
Mariners 79-61 0.564 +0.5 WLLWW
blue jays 79-61 0.564 +0.5 WWWLW
rays 78-61 0.561 WWLLL
Orioles 73-67 0.521 5.5 WLWLL
White Sox 72-69 0.511 7.0 WWWWL

Within the AL West it is usual, usual: the Astros are eleven video games up over the M’s, Oakland’s within the basement, and the Rangers and Angels are flip-flopping backwards and forwards 18-ish video games behind the Mariners. At this level, all three of the groups behind the M’s in our division have been mathematically eradicated from the playoffs.

The Orioles, White Sox, and Twins are falling additional down within the Wild Card standings, at 5 and a half, seven, and 9 video games again respectively. The Mariners, Blue Jays, and Rays method a state of quantum entanglement, separated by a complete of a half sport whole and dancing round an identical information. Because it stands as we speak, the Mariners and Blue Jays are each 79-61, and the Rays are a half sport again at 78-61. If the season ended now, the Rays would play three video games at Cleveland, and the Mariners would host the Jays as a result of they gained the head-to-head season sequence. #TMoTakeback certainly.

After the Blue Jays beat the Rays 3-2 yesterday, the 2 groups performed 4 extra this week, beginning with a doubleheader as we speak. The Orioles might be dealing with the Nationals, the White Sox the Rockies, and the Twins will host the Royals.

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